EK小课堂（一） | 小编辑们的分享：温室效应、IPCC、碳预算和计算碳排放

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来源：培元学堂

作者：严思瀚、吴潇、李庭毅、李润元

2023-10-18

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领域环境保护

EK小课堂是10位培元生态编辑部的小编辑们定期给大家呈现生态小知识的栏目。我们肉眼可见的极端天气越来越多，由此更多的人意识到了气候变化带来的严重问题，但如何解决呢？首先要了解这个问题是什么，其次才会有解决方案。EK小课堂就是小编辑们让大家更多了解问题是什么，让大家一起来探寻解决办法。希望大家喜欢并点赞，更希望大家可以传播给更多的人。

本期由严思瀚、吴潇、李庭毅、李润元四位小编辑，为读者们带来关于温室效应（GHG）、联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)、碳预算(Carbon budget)和计算碳排放（Calculate carbon emissions）的知识分享。

（严思瀚）

“我叫严思瀚，今年13岁了，来自东直门中学。我爱好广泛，其中非常喜欢数学和物理。我长大希望成为一个科学家，为世界环保事业做出贡献。”

温室效应（GHG=Greenhouse Gases）

温室效应是指行星的大气层因为吸收辐射能量，使得行星表面升温的效应，分为自然温室效应和人为温室效应。

自然温室效应（Natural greenhouse effect）

自然温室效应在地球上保持着足够高的温度，可以孵化生命（平均15°C，而没有这种现象的-18°C）。地球的大气层通过一些撞击地面的太阳辐射。当加热时，地面会发出部分或完全被大气中存在的温室气体捕获的红外辐射。这种被捕获的能量转化为热量，使地球表面变暖。

The greenhouse effect maintains a sufficiently high temperature on Earth for the hatching of Life. The Earth's atmosphere lets through some of the solar radiation that hits the ground. When heated, the ground emits infrared radiation that is partially or totally trapped by the greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere. This trapped energy is transformed into heat that warms the surface of the globe.

人为温室效应（Anthropogenic greenhouse effect）

人为温室效应是指大气层使星球变暖的效应，人类向大气中排入的二氧化碳等吸热性强的温室气体逐年增加，大气的温室效应也随之增强，引发了一系列问题。

Share of greenhouse effect related to greenhouse gases produced by human activity.

（吴潇）

“我叫吴潇，今年14岁，来自北京三十五中，初三。兴趣爱好：围棋，足球，画画。不擅长的事：语文，体育，英语。希望大家以后能互相认识，和谐相处。”

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的主要活动是编写评估气候变化知识状况的报告。其中包括评估报告、特别报告和方法报告。为了执行这一工作方案，IPCC召开了政府代表会议，作为小组或气专委工作组的全体会议，以批准、通过和接受报告。IPCC全体会议还决定IPCC的工作计划和其他事务，包括其预算和报告大纲。IPCC主席团定期举行会议，就其工作的科学和技术方面向技术和经济评估小组组提供指导。IPCC组织专家范围界定会议和主要作者会议，以编写报告。它组织关于各种专题的专家会议和讲习班，以支持其工作方案，并出版这些会议的记录。通过评估，IPCC确定了气候变化的知识更新，确定了科学界在与气候变化相关的主题上达成一致的地方，以及需要进一步研究的地方。报告分几个阶段起草和审查，从而保证客观性和透明度。

IPCC不进行自己的研究。IPCC报告是中立的，与政策相关，但不具有政策规范性。评估报告是对应对气候变化的国际谈判的重要投入。IPCC由联合国环境规划署（UN Environment）和世界气象组织（WMO）于1988年创建，拥有195个成员国。同年，联合国大会批准了WMO和UNEP共同建立IPCC的行动。

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）The main activity of the IPCC is the preparation of reports assessing the state of knowledge on climate change. These include assessment reports, special reports and methodology reports.To implement this work programme, the IPCC convened meetings of government representatives to serve as plenary meetings of panels or IPCC working groups for the approval, adoption and acceptance of reports. The IPCC plenary also decides on the IPCC workplan and other matters, including its budget and the outline of its report. The IPCC bureau meets regularly to provide guidance to TEAP on the scientific and technical aspects of its work.

The IPCC organizes a scoping meeting of experts and a meeting of lead authors for the preparation of the report. It organizes expert meetings and workshops on various topics in support of its work programme and publishes the proceedings of those meetings. Through its assessments, the IPCC determines the state of knowledge on climate change. It identifies areas where the scientific community agrees on topics related to climate change and where further research is needed. The report was drafted and reviewed in several stages to ensure objectivity and transparency.

The IPCC does not conduct its own research. IPCC reports are neutral and policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive. Assessment reports are an important input to international negotiations to address climate change.

The IPCC was created in 1988 by the UN Environment and World Meteorological Organization United Nations Environment Programme -WMO-WMO) and has 195 members. That same year, the United Nations General Assembly approved a joint effort by the WMO and UNEP to establish the IPCC.

《巴黎协定》(The Paris Agreement)，是由全世界178个缔约方共同签署的气候变化协定，是对2020年后全球应对气候变化的行动作出的统一安排。《巴黎协定》的长期目标是将全球平均气温较前工业化时期上升幅度控制在2摄氏度以内，并努力将温度上升幅度限制在1.5摄氏度以内。《巴黎协定》于2015年12月12日在第21届联合国气候变化大会(巴黎气候大会)上通过，于2016年4月22日在美国纽约联合国大厦签署，于2016年11月4日起正式实施。2016年4月22日，时任中国国务院副总理张高丽作为*主席特使在《巴黎协定》上签字。同年9月3日，全国人大常委会批准中国加入《巴黎气候变化协定》，成为完成了批准协定的缔约方之一。

The Paris Agreement, a climate change agreement jointly signed by 178 contracting parties worldwide, is a unified arrangement for global action to address climate change after 2020.The long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is to control the increase in global average temperature within 2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre industrial period, and to strive to limit the temperature increase to within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The Paris Agreement was passed on December 12, 2015 at the 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC), signed on April 22, 2016 at the United Nations Building in New York, United States, and officially implemented on November 4, 2016. On September 3 of the same year, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress approved China's accession to the Paris Climate Change Agreement, becoming one of the contracting parties that completed the ratification of the agreement.

(李庭毅)

“我叫李庭毅，今年14岁，来自北京第三十五中学，平时喜欢音乐和绘画。来到培元学堂，我受益匪浅。希望可以在之后的时间和大家一起学习环保知识，并亲身践行，为保护我们的自然环境出一份力，加油。”

什么是碳预算？What is a carbon budget?

碳预算这个概念借助了财政学中的一些概念，表示在一段时间内全球碳排放量可以达到的极限值。目前普遍认为全球变暖1.5℃～2.0℃是人类可以承受的极限，而碳预算就规定了全球达到最高温度时，所排放碳的最高上限。

The concept of carbon budget draws on some concepts in finance to represent the limit value that global carbon emissions can reach over a period of time. Currently, it is widely believed that global warming of 1.5 ℃ ~2.0 ℃ is the limit that humans can withstand, and the carbon budget sets the maximum limit of carbon emissions when the world reaches the highest temperature.

目前的碳预算数值是多少？What is the current carbon budget value?

2022年11月11日，国际科学合作组织（ISO）在《2022年全球碳预算》（GCP）（简称报告）中公布了在2022年度内全球碳排放的数值，为405亿吨。相比2021年增加了1％。报告统计了全球达到升温1.5℃时的碳预算，若保持当前排放水平，全球将会有50％的几率在9年后升温1.5℃（升温1.7℃为每年排放量730亿吨，持续十八年，升温2.0℃为每年排放量1230亿吨，持续三十年）。

On November 11, 2022, the International Organization for Scientific Cooperation (ISO) announced the global carbon emissions（GCP） for the year 2022 in the "2022 Global Carbon Budget" (referred to as the report), which was 40.5 billion tons. Compared to 2021, it has increased by 1%. The report calculates the carbon budget for a global warming of 1.5 ℃. If current emission levels are maintained, there is a 50% chance that the world will experience a warming of 1.5 ℃ in 9 years (73 billion tons each years at 1.7 ℃ for 18 years, 123 billion tons each years at 2.0 ℃ for 30 years).

（不同国家，不同材料导致的碳排放数据 Data on carbon emissions caused by different materials and different countries)

造成碳排放的主要因素有什么？What are the main factors causing carbon emissions?

自从2022年起，由于因为疫情导致的限制逐步放松，全球油气资源的使用大大增长，占总碳排放的90％，此外养殖牲畜与建造建筑也会导致碳排放的增加。值得一提的是，全球因水泥与天然气导致的碳排放总计减少1.8％，化石中的碳排放也相继减少。

Since 2022, due to the gradual relaxation of restrictions caused by the epidemic, the use of global oil and gas resources has greatly increased nationwide, accounting for 90% of total carbon emissions. In addition, raising livestock and building buildings will also lead to an increase in carbon emissions. It is worth mentioning that the global carbon emissions caused by cement and natural gas have decreased by a total of 1.8%, and carbon emissions from fossil fuels have also decreased one after another.

碳预算可以使我们如何规划未来，实现可持续发展呢？How can carbon budgeting enable us to plan for the future and achieve sustainable development?

首先，得知碳预算值，可以使我们有效地认识到目前碳排放的影响，以及可以进行可持续发展的方式。其次，利用碳预算，我们可以合理分配不同企业间的排碳配比，根据市场制定企业间的碳排放规划，防止过度排碳。

Firstly, knowing the carbon budget value can enable us to effectively recognize the impact of current carbon emissions and the ways in which sustainable development can be achieved. Secondly, using carbon budgeting, we can reasonably allocate the carbon emission ratio between different enterprises, formulate carbon emission plans among enterprises based on the market, and prevent excessive carbon emissions.

如何从自身节能减排，延长碳预算所计算出的可以使人类正常居住温度的时间呢？How can we save energy, reduce emissions, and extend the carbon budget to calculate the duration of normal human living temperature?

报告中显示，2022年中，由于电动车以及新能源家居的不断普及，有效减少了10亿吨左右的碳排放，对于延长碳预算所计算出的可以使人类正常居住温度的时间有显著帮助，生活中，多使用节能家居，绿色出行，少开私家车等多种方式都可以有效减少碳排放。希望大家一起节能减排，让地球可持续地发展。

The report shows that in 2022, due to the continuous popularity of electric vehicles and new energy homes, carbon emissions have been effectively reduced by about 1 billion tons, which is significantly helpful for extending the time calculated by the carbon budget to maintain normal living temperatures for humans. In daily life, various methods such as using energy-saving homes, green transportation, and driving fewer private cars can effectively reduce carbon emissions. I hope everyone can work together to save energy and reduce emissions, so that the earth can develop sustainably.

(李润元)

“本人李润元，女，14岁，初三。英语雅思六分，法语DELF B1级别，西班牙语DELE A2级别。对环境保护和气候变化等热点话题感兴趣，愿意了解更多关于热点话题（比如环保相关的术语、学术名词等等）的知识。希望我能通过与各位老师和同学们的交流学习到更多知识，分享自己的心得，同时希望能通过这些编辑工作提高自己的能力。”

什么是碳排放? What is carbon emission?

碳排放是指一个地区或组织在一定时间内向大气排放(或捕获)的温室气体数量。

Carbon emission is the quantity of GHGs emitted (or captured), into the atmosphere over a given period of time by the intuitions of an organization or a territory.

什是碳足迹?What is carbon footprint?

碳足迹是指个人、组织或活动所产生的温室气体排放总量。

Carbon footprint’s the total amount of GHGs produced by people, organizations or activities.

碳足迹和碳排放的区别是什么？What is the difference between the carbon footprint and carbon emission?

碳足迹和碳排放是两个不同的概念。碳足迹是综合性的度量，涵盖了个人、组织或产品在整个生命周期内的温室气体排放。而碳排放更注重特定活动或过程中的温室气体释放量。

Carbon footprint and carbon emissions are two different concepts. Carbon footprint is a comprehensive measure that covers the greenhouse gas emissions of individuals, organizations, or products throughout their entire lifecycle. Carbon emissions are more focused on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from specific activities or processes.